Here’s what’s happening in our market and why real estate makes sense.
An excerpt from Michael Masterson’s Journal:
Taking advantage of real estate prices that are as low as they’ve been in 20 or 30 years
It is impossible (and foolish) to try to predict the bottom (or top) of this (or any) market. But, by any measure, we have just gone through one of the biggest real estate recessions in the history of the United States.
In South Florida, for example, you can find properties for less than half of what they were selling for at the peak of the market. More important, you can buy these properties with 20% down and start enjoying positive cash flow from month one. (Four and five years ago, you couldn’t get positive cash flow out of rental units with 50% down.) So today’s prices make sense from a businessman’s perspective.
My real estate partner Peter and I have been buying homes in the $120,000 to $130,000 range (after closing costs and renovations). We are getting monthly rents of $1,300 to $1,600 on these. I am financing our deals at 4% (which is good for me). At that rate, we are making about 6% to 8% on our money, not counting appreciation.
My brother is buying up residential properties and apartment complexes in lively downtown areas, beach areas, and areas targeted for “stimulus money” renovation. He is buying at such deep cash flow prices that he is able to pay his investors (including me) minimum guaranteed yields of 7.5% plus equity participation. Because of this, he has raised a considerable amount of money in the last few months, and he is using the money to do some very impressive deals.
He just bought a 14-unit building across the street from the beach for $725,000! Think of that. Each beach-view, one-bedroom unit cost him only about $50,000 — and this apartment complex could be worth several million in the not-too-distant future. He also now controls three properties in the heart of a rapidly growing downtown, zoned commercial and residential. And even though they’re in a prime spot, he is generating yields of over 8%.
Whether with Peter, through my brother, or by myself, I will continue to invest in real estate so long as prices are low. If they go down further, I’ll buy more aggressively. I have no risk of losing money, because all the properties I’m investing in are making money on a monthly basis. Even if rents drop, I won’t be losing money. The 4% to 8% yield I’m enjoying will cover me even if rents go down another 25%, which is highly unlikely.
I get immediate income from these deals. Instead of getting 0% on my cash, I’m getting a minimum of 7.5% fully secured guaranteed yields by loaning it to my brother, and additional yield from the “after-debt” cash flow.
But the real opportunity is in the appreciation potential. As I said, I fully expect to make an extra $10 million in appreciation in the next five to 10 years as inflation pushes up real estate prices. I might make as much as $30 million, but I’m trying to be conservative.
There are some who say that real estate prices won’t inflate with the rest of the economy, but I think they will. Here’s why. Buildings are built with core commodities… lumber, copper, aluminum, concrete, steel. Labor is another big expense. You can’t have inflation without a rise in those costs.
Plus, as my brother points out, properties in many areas are selling for less than replacement value. In some cases, even if you got the land for free, you couldn’t build these homes for what you can buy them for today. That’s even after taking depreciation into account.
Last but not least, in many instances, it’s already far cheaper to buy than it is to rent. Eventually, this will turn the tide toward buying. It’s just a matter of time.
So that’s my first inflation-beating recommendation: Start buying undervalued, quality rental properties now. Don’t wait for the market to bottom. Just find properties that will give you a net cash flow of at least 4% to 9% after all expenses (including property taxes, maintenance, fees, etc.).
